If you’re living on a Social Security check, you’ve probably been watching inflation numbers as closely as the weather forecast. And now, early hints for 2026 are starting to show up—and they’re a bit more generous than last year’s. According to fresh projections from policy experts, retirees might see about a 2.7% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) next year. That’s a hair higher than the 2.5% bump that showed up in 2025, but nowhere near the eye-popping increases seen during the recent inflation surge.
Where are these numbers coming from? Well, the Social Security Administration (SSA) doesn’t make the official call until October. That’s when they take the latest inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), crunch the numbers, and reveal exactly how much benefits will increase starting in January. But people like Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, and the Senior Citizens League (a nonpartisan group advocating for older Americans) have already run their own estimates based on July’s inflation report.
And both came in nearly the same—Johnson pegged it at 2.7%, while the League’s math landed at 2.6%. That’s based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which is the specific inflation measure Social Security uses to calculate COLA.
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How COLA Is Actually Calculated
Every year, the SSA looks at the average CPI-W readings from July, August, and September and compares them to the same period a year earlier. If prices have gone up, benefits get an adjustment to match—at least in theory. The calculation is straightforward, but the reality can feel like it’s lagging behind the true cost of living, especially for retirees whose spending patterns often differ from the CPI-W’s urban wage earner focus.
| Step | What Happens | Data Source |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Take CPI-W data for July, August, September (current year) | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| 2 | Average those three months | SSA calculation |
| 3 | Compare to last year’s same period | SSA |
| 4 | Percentage increase = COLA for next year | SSA |
You can check the SSA’s official COLA archives here.
Why 2.7% Feels “Meh” but Still Matters
Over the last 20 years, the average COLA has been around 2.6%, according to the Senior Citizens League. That means the 2026 estimate is almost perfectly in line with history. But after 2022’s historic 8.7% jump—driven by soaring inflation—anything in the low twos might feel underwhelming.
Still, a 2.7% bump isn’t nothing. For someone receiving $1,900 a month, that would mean about $51 more each month, or $612 over the course of the year. It’s not going to cover a new roof or medical procedure, but it might keep up with smaller increases in groceries or utility bills.
What Could Change the Numbers Before October
Here’s the thing: July’s inflation data is just the first of three puzzle pieces. August and September will seal the deal. And while tariffs have only had a modest effect on prices so far, they’ve already shown up in certain categories like household furnishings and supplies. If those ripple effects spread over the next two months, it could nudge the COLA calculation up—or down—by a tenth of a percentage point.
You can track inflation numbers yourself through the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI reports.
The Long View
The COLA system was designed to keep benefits from losing buying power to inflation, but it’s not a perfect tool. Retirees often spend more on health care and housing than the CPI-W accounts for, meaning even with an adjustment, many still feel the pinch.
Some advocates are pushing for Social Security to instead base COLA on the CPI-E (Consumer Price Index for the Elderly), which tends to rise faster than the CPI-W. Whether Congress takes that up remains to be seen
This projection isn’t official—it’s an informed estimate. The SSA will release the actual 2026 COLA figure in October 2025, after incorporating the final inflation data. Past projections from these sources have been close but not always exact. For historical accuracy, you can see last year’s official announcement directly on the SSA website.
FAQs
What is COLA in Social Security?
COLA is the cost-of-living adjustment applied annually to Social Security benefits to help keep pace with inflation.
When will the 2026 COLA be announced?
The SSA will announce it in October 2025.
How is COLA calculated?
It’s based on the average CPI-W for July–September compared to the same period a year earlier.
Can COLA ever be zero?
Yes. If there’s no measured inflation (as in 2010, 2011, and 2016), there’s no adjustment.
